Trump and the Stock Market: Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

The front page cover for The Economist magazine. The cover features a photo of Trump with the word, "Trumponomics" written across his face.

Photo credit: dennizn / Shutterstock

Ever since Trump took office, the stock market has hit some record highs. Most recently, the Dow reached over 23,000 for the first time in history.

President Trump, of course, credits himself for this trend. In a series of tweets published on Oct. 11, the president wrote:

“Stock market has increased by 5.2 trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 6 years and if Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for, those numbers will grow by leaps and bounds.”

But while it’s tempting to attribute the recent economic growth to the newly elected president, experts say that just isn’t accurate.

Kevin Caron, a portfolio manager and market strategist who helped oversee $180 billion dollars at Stifel Nicolaus, attributes the growth to earnings rather than politics.

“The new records have everything to do with earnings,” Caron explained. “It’s obvious that the stock market follows earnings, but the market narrative always wants to find something more interest. But the reality is very simple: The market has gone higher because earnings have improved.”

Maris Ogg, president of Tower Bridge Advisors, agrees.

“So far, earnings have beat expectations,” said Ogg. “I think that the most important thing economically that has happened this year is the clear, sustainable recovery occurring in Europe. We’re getting confirmation of that with almost every economic release.”

Other business moguls have different theories. Walter Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management, believes the recent growth has more to do with the time of year.

“The seasonal factor is playing a big role,” Hellwig told Business Insider. “We’re out of the ‘sell in May and go away’ time frame. Between now and the end of the year, I think people are going to keep buying, with good earnings still coming in.”

And then there’s Bill Schultz, chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball, & Associates. Schultz gave several reasons for the rise of the Dow, none of which have to do with Trump.

“The underlying economy has performed better than a lot of people expected,” Schultz expounded in an interview with Business Insider. “You’re starting to see a lot of capital expenditures take place through corporations. You’ve got better confidence coming from individuals. There’s not as much concern about the Fed aggressively raising rates. And the economies around the world have performed better.”

In summation, Trump’s involvement with the rise of the stock market is likely more coincidental than anything. However, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever stop taking credit for it.

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About DevonJ140
I am currently an Accounting Director living in New York City. I love reading and learning more about business, finance, tech, and current events.

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